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By Michael DiSanto

The build up to UFC 46 suggested that BJ Penn had little, if any, chance of dethroning the most dominant welterweight champion in the history of mixed martial arts.

Heading into their January 2004 clash, Matt Hughes appeared to be at the apex of his title reign, enjoying the fruits of a 13-fight winning streak that included five successful defenses of his UFC welterweight title. Penn, on the other hand, was making his Octagon return after taking some time off to reflect on his desire to continue competing. His previous UFC bout was an uninspiring effort resulting in a draw against Caol Uno, a fighter Penn stopped in a lightning-quick 11 seconds in his UFC debut.

To make matters worse, Penn, then a career lightweight, was moving up in weight for the first time, making his welterweight debut against Hughes. It seemed, therefore, that all the stars were perfectly aligned for another dominant victory by the reigning champion.

When the bell tolled for Hughes’ sixth title defense, the bout certainly did unfold in a very one-sided fashion. But it was far from what the pundits predicted, as Penn was the one dishing out the dominant beating, putting an exclamation point on his winning effort by kissing the shocked, fallen champion on the mouth after choking him out in the first round.

The victory skyrocketed Penn to the top of everyone’s UFC pound-for-pound list, and it left Hughes wondering how things could have possibly gone so wrong.

Fast forward to today. Hughes is back in the familiar role of reigning UFC welterweight champion looking to defend his title after a series of dominant victories. Penn, by contrast, is in the midst of a string of bad luck, dropping two of his last three fights by controversial judges’ decisions. Thus, the Hilo, Hawaii native once again sits as the betting underdog heading into the rematch with Hughes at UFC 63 on September 23.

But is that a fair assessment of the matchup? No. This puppy is a dead heat, a true pick’em if there has ever been such a thing in the vaunted eight-sided cage.

Make no mistake about it. There is a good chance that Matt Hughes will show up, take Penn down, pound him into “Bolivion,” as Mike Tyson likes to say, and end all doubt as to who is the true ruler of the 170-lb kingdom. But there is an equally good chance that Penn will give the world another Herculean performance and dethrone the decorated champion.

To the uninformed, that may come across like foolishness, particularly after Hughes completely outclassed an aging legend in Royce Gracie just a few short months ago. Hughes-Gracie, however, has about as much relevance to the outcome of Hughes-Penn II as the latest rerun of “Law and Order.” Each matchup must be looked at in a microcosm, analyzing each fighter’s particular strengths, weaknesses and tendencies against those of his opponent.

In other words, styles make fights. So let’s breakdown the rematch, highlighting why this is anybody’s fight:

Standup

The advantage on the feet goes to Penn all day, everyday. Sure, Hughes shows constantly improving standup skills each and every trip to the Octagon. But if he has any intent on playing kickboxer with Penn, he really should watch a tape of his former conqueror’s back-and-forth heavyweight battle with Ryoto “Lyoto” Machida in Japan back in March 2005.

Yes, you read that correctly. Penn competed against a guy who weighed more than 205 pounds, and he stood his ground trading punches. Penn never took a step backwards during the fight, landing shots that stopped his opponent’s onslaught again and again. In this writer’s mind, he did enough to justify a close unanimous decision win. Although the judges saw it differently, the fact that Penn was able to stand and bomb with the same guy who knocked out UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin speaks volumes. Anything can happen with those tiny Vale Tudo gloves, but as long as Penn doesn’t get hit with a punch he doesn’t see, Hughes simply doesn’t have the power to hurt him or the skills to outstrike him. Edge: Penn—massive edge.

Wrestling

It is no big secret that Hughes is an ultra dominant wrestler, using a rare blend of explosive takedowns, tremendous ground control and seemingly inhuman strength to take foes to the mat early and keep them there until referee “Big” John McCarthy waves off the action. Penn can’t outwrestle him, everybody knows that much. He does, however, posses elite takedown defense when he wants to keep the fight on the feet. So people shouldn’t be shocked to see Penn stuff a few takedown attempts if Hughes fails to set them up with some other aspect of his game. Regardless, it is tough to imagine Penn defending more than a few takedowns if the fight goes past the first round. Edge: Hughes—this one isn’t close.

Ground Fighting

A few years ago, this would have been a one-sentence analysis giving a massive advantage to Penn. Today, that just isn’t the case. Sure, Penn has a jiu-jitsu pedigree than trumps any American-born UFC fighter. In a pure submission grapping tournament, he beats Hughes every day of the week. But this isn’t submission grappling. It is mixed martial arts.

While Penn is an elite jiu-jitsu practitioner, he hasn’t shown much from his back in the Octagon. In his last bout against George St. Pierre at UFC 58, he did little from his back other than defending incoming punches, throwing a few strikes and looking for opportunities to sweep. He threw in the occasional triangle or oma plata attempt, but they weren’t overly significant.

Ostensibly, Penn followed that game plan because he was concerned about St. Pierre’s ground-and-pound attack, not wanting to create openings for the Canadian to land fight-ending strikes. The end result was that Penn didn’t take much damage from his back, but he didn’t score many points on the judges’ scorecards, either.

Against Hughes, Penn will find himself in a similar conundrum. He knows that he has the skills to submit the champion from his back. But he also knows that a series of right hands or cut-opening elbows from Hughes can end the fight quickly, so he isn’t likely to take many risks going for submissions from his back unless one is handed to him on a silver platter. Such a conservative approach gives Hughes a distinct advantage when working his ground-and-pound game.

Of course, if Penn can find a way to put Hughes on his back, then the tide turns dramatically in his favor. The champion is definitely one of the most underrated submission guys in the sport after spending untold hours training with Jeremy Horn. But he neither has the offensive game to submit a jiu-jitsu wizard like Penn from his back nor does he possess sufficient submission defense to avoid a submission if Penn takes his back, as he showed in their first bout. In fact, Hughes poses no threat whatsoever unless he secures the top position. That gives Penn, a guy who is potentially dangerous in any position, the edge on the ground. Edge: Penn—but only it is only a slight edge because of Hughes’ dominant top game, as blasphemous as that sounds to most jiu-jitsu practitioners.

Clinch Work

Penn almost certainly prefers to try and win the title from a distance, letting his hands go from the outside in an effort to pick apart Hughes. The champion absolutely wants to score an early takedown and fight from the top position, raining down conservative elbows in an effort to control his opponent and exact serious damage in the process. But both men are keenly aware of the other man’s game plan, so it is very likely that the turning points in the fight will unfold in the clinch, somewhat of a compromise position in a battle like this one.

When the fighters tie up, Hughes will look to impose his amazing strength by lifting his opponent for a trademark slam. Penn will counter by fighting for a Thai clinch where he can use knees to sap Hughes’ strength and dirty boxing to try and open some cuts. Who has the advantages in those exchanges? It is tough to call, but Penn has more tools in the clinch, as he showed against St. Pierre, so he gets the nod. Edge: Penn.

Conditioning

Let’s dispel one gigantic myth right now: Fighting is not bodybuilding, and a set of ripped abdominal muscles has nothing to do with a fighter’s cardiovascular conditioning. Why is that important? Simple. Most people wrongly assume that a guy like Penn – whose midsection more closely resembles that of the Pillsbury Doughboy than Rich Franklin – is lazy and put no effort whatsoever into his cardio. Instead, it means he either has poor genetics (in terms of body fat composition) or a poor diet.

With that said, Penn is famous for showing up in less-than-stellar shape. The principal reason he lost a close decision to St. Pierre at UFC 58 was his poor conditioning. But an even pudgier Penn looked like he had wind for days against Machida. No matter, Hughes is a cardio machine. The guy can go for days seemingly without losing strength. This one isn’t even close, unless the challenger somehow finds religion in the form of running prior to the fight. Edge: Hughes.

Experience

If anyone is a grizzled veteran with just over a dozen fights, it’s Penn. His experience has been absolutely unique for this day and age of competition, fighting as a lightweight, welterweight, middleweight and heavyweight. It harkens back to the days of the open-weight gladiators like Royce Gracie. But the champion has an overwhelming edge in terms of number of fights, total rounds of MMA competition and championship fights. This bout is a simple “been there, done that” night for Hughes. Edge: Hughes.

Heart

One simple question sheds light on this analysis: Has anyone ever witnessed either Hughes or Penn quit during a fight? No. Has either man ever backed down from a challenge? No. Can anyone question either man’s ticker? No. Edge: Even.

Rematches

The champion sports a 2-1 record in rematches. Interestingly enough, both of his wins came against foes he had previously defeated. Yet, he failed to flip the script against a former conqueror when given the opportunity, suffering two submission losses to Dennis Hallman.

Penn’s record in rematches isn’t any more impressive. As previously mentioned, Penn blasted out Uno in 11 seconds at UFC 34. Yet, when the pair hooked up for Penn’s lone career rematch, the highly favored Hawaiian looked like a different fighter. Seemingly uninspired at the prospects of fighting someone he beat so easily the first time, Penn sleepwalked his way to a draw against Uno at UFC 41.

Will Hughes be haunted by that loathsome demon called “self doubt” when he steps into the cage against Penn? Will he have nightmares of the two Hallman fights? Is Penn properly motivated fighting against a guy he defeated so easily just a few years ago? Will he overlook the champion like he did Uno? Edge: Even.

At the end of the day, this bout is as tough to call as any fight over the last few years. Each man holds significant advantages in certain areas of the game. Hughes is amazingly consistent, but Penn is capable of jaw-dropping, odds-defying performances. Who will win, establishing himself as the best welterweight on the planet? We will find out soon enough.

Then again, a guy named St. Pierre might have a thing or two to say about that, as well.